The Oscars 2015: forecasted winners

Thank you, maths

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Want to know who will take home the golden statues on Sunday before anyone else does? Maths has the answers (probably).

Ben Zauzmer, a Harvard University senior who’s studying applied maths, and is exceptionally good at statistics, has come up with a formula to determine who will win at the Oscars 2015.

In the acting categories, things look set to follow the BAFTAs’ lead – according to Zauzmer, Julianne Moore and J.K Simmons (for their roles in Still Alice and Whiplash respectively) are your safest bets.

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Zauzmer has a good track record – a 75% success rate from previous years. His algorithim takes in to account results from other award shows, critics’ scores and data from Oscar ceremonies over the past 20 years. He uses statistics to determine how good a predictor each of these factors is and ends up with a percentage chance that each film will win in each category.

Ben Zauzmer’s Oscar winners forecast:

PICTURE

Birdman 39.9%

Boyhood 21.8%

The Grand Budapest Hotel 9.2%

The Imitation Game 9.2%

American Sniper 6.4%

Whiplash 6.4%

The Theory of Everything 6.2%

Selma 1%

 

DIRECTOR

Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman 55.6%

Richard Linklater, Boyhood 23.9%

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel 10.0%

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game 9.5%

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher 1.0%

 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Julianne Moore, Still Alice 84.4%

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything 6.0%

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl 4.3%

Reese Witherspoon, Wild 4.3%

Marion Cotillars, Two Days, One Night 1.0%

 

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything 77.1%

Michael Keaton, Bordman 13.8%

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher 4.0%

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game 4.0%

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper 1.0%

 

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash 84.7%

Edward Norton, Birdman 6.7%

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood 6.3%

Robert Duvall, The Judge 1.2%

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher 1.0%

 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood 82.2%

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game 7.2%

Emma Stone, Birdman 6.9%

Meryl Streep, Into The Woods 2.7%

Laura Dern, Wild 1.0%

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