The Oscars 2019 is finally here. And while we've still got just over an hour to go, the excitement is mounting. Roma is the favourite for best picture, right? Or is it Lady Gaga's A Star Is Born. Has The Favourite moved into the lead? Don’t forget Vice, BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther.
We can't decide, and we can't wait either. So god bless Ben Zauzmer, one particularly data-loving Twitterer who uses maths to 'predict and write about award shows'.
The Harvard Mathematics graduate uses data from the year’s earlier award ceremonies, like the Golden Globes and the British Academy Film Awards, to predict Oscar winners with near-perfect accuracy.
Last year, Zauzmer’s Oscar accurately guessed an impressive 20 out of 21 nominations — predicteding what many considered to be an upset best-picture victory for The Shape of Water.
'I look at how predictive each of these [other] awards have been in the past when it comes to predicting the Oscars and then I give more weight to the award shows that have done a better job,' Zauzmer told Yahoo Finance.
This year, Zauzmer is back at it again, hinting at who we might see thanking the Academy tonight.
Best Picture? He's reckons Roma is the winner, with BlacKkKlansman a close second. Glenn Close will be crowned Best Actress for The Wife, while Olivia Coleman is second favourite (for The Favourite).
After the Golden Globes, both Bohemian Rhapsody star Rami Malek and Vice's Christian Bale have been front runners for Best Actor. However, wins by Malek at the British Academy Film Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards give him a statistical edge, according to Zauzmer.
Take a look at the full list here:
When it comes to the art of predicting winners, it probably pays to have Maths on your side (that or just wait an hour).
